Why Longevity on Broadway Beats Out Tony Wins

A recent insight shared by the team at Situation — a leading digital marketing agency for arts and entertainment — caught our attention:

“Longevity on Broadway likely influences ticket decisions more than Tony wins.”

At first glance, this might seem counterintuitive. After all, a Tony Award is the highest accolade a Broadway show can receive. But from a behavioral science perspective, this insight checks out — and then some.

Let’s break down why audiences may choose a long-running show over a newly minted Tony winner.

🧠 Social Proof: “If it's lasted this long, it must be good.”

When faced with uncertainty, people look to others for cues on what to do. A show that’s been on Broadway for years benefits from the weight of mass approval. In the absence of deep research, the logic becomes simple: other people saw this and liked it, so I probably will too.

This is classic social proof — a cognitive shortcut that lets people offload decision-making onto the crowd.

🧠 Familiarity Bias: The comfort of the known

Audiences, especially tourists and occasional theatergoers, often gravitate toward names they recognize. Long-running shows have been visible for years — through ads, reviews, subway posters, and social chatter.

That prolonged exposure builds trust. This is the familiarity bias in action: we tend to favor what we’ve seen before, even if we don’t know it well.

🧠 Availability Heuristic: Top of mind wins

The availability heuristic describes our tendency to rely on information that’s easiest to recall. Shows that have been running for years are more likely to come to mind when someone starts planning a Broadway trip.

It’s not necessarily about quality — it’s about mental availability. If someone remembers Chicago or The Lion King without effort, those titles have a leg up on a brand-new Tony-winning production.

🧠 Loss Aversion: Playing it safe

Audiences hate wasting money. Choosing the “wrong” show can feel like a loss — and people are psychologically wired to avoid losses more than they are to seek equivalent gains.

A show with longevity acts like a reputational guarantee. It signals staying power, consistency, and widespread appeal. That’s often enough to make it feel like the safer choice.

Awards impress. Longevity reassures.

Tony wins are prestigious. They matter deeply in the industry and among theater superfans. But when it comes to purchasing behavior, it turns out audiences are looking for something a little simpler: a reason to trust that they’ll enjoy the show.

Thanks to the team at Situation for surfacing this insight — and for the reminder that when you understand how people really make decisions, your marketing becomes far more powerful.